Lamorinda Real Estate 2012 — Where the market is now, and what lies ahead — Chapter 2

29 01 2012

As we continue with “Chapter 2″ of a three-part series on our forecast for the Lafayette real estate market, Orinda, and Moraga — commonly referred to as “Lamorinda”– we find that in 2011 the strength of the market continued to be the sub-$1M homes.  This is underscored by the fact that the average list price of a Lamorinda home on-market in the 4thquarter was approximately $1.4M, while the average price of a SOLD home was just below $1M.

Looking in a more focused manner at the Lafayette real estate market, the $2M+ segment is still extremely slow, while the $1M – $2M market has been very active and suffers from a lack of quality inventory.  As of the end of December 2011, there were only 10 homes on the market in this segment, with 8 closed sales during the month and 1 pending sale.  Below $1M, 6 homes went into escrow during the month of December against an inventory of 22 homes — so a little better than 1 in 4 homes found a buyer.

A number of other external factors appear to give rise to further optimism for the 2012 market.  Since most people require a mortgage in order to purchase a home, the underlying interest rate of the note plays an important role in determining home affordability.  Interest rates for 30 year fixed rate mortgages have fallen to an all-time low, averaging about 3.89% for conforming loans – those under $729,000.  For those able to afford a higher payment in exchange for only a 15 year term, they are being rewarded with conforming loan rates averaging just 3.15%.  Jumbo loans – those over $729,000 – are readily available for qualified buyers from most major lenders at rates in the low 4% range!

Nationally, foreclosure filings have dropped to the lowest level since 2007 – another signal that the tide may be turning.  Some believe the decline may be due to delays by the banks in processing foreclosures and that we’ll see an increase in them as we head deeper into 2012.  Even if that is the case, the increase may be more than mitigated by new programs packaging large blocks of foreclosed homes for investors.  Numerous large commercial enterprises are now entering the single-family home market, seeking to bulk purchase large numbers of properties that will be turned into rentals.  One of the recent market entries is the private equity fund, GI Partners, out of Menlo Park.  They envision expanding their investment in single-family homes to about $1B in the next two years.  A very recent 26-page paper by the Federal Reserve outlined programs for converting the glut in foreclosed homes to rental stock.  Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to announce pilot programs in the weeks ahead.  What’s it mean?  It strongly suggests more decreases in inventory which will result in additional shoring up of the market, and will be supportive of strengthening home prices.

When you check back next time, we’ll finish up with where we think the Lamorinda real estate market is headed for 2012.

 


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Lamorinda Real Estate 2012 — Where the market is now, and what lies ahead — Part 1

21 01 2012

As we commence 2012, we are about 6 years into the current real estate cycle that saw prices hit their peak in Contra Costa County around June 2006, and then begin their well-documented decline phase.  Much has transpired on the economic front lines over the last year that has impacted consumer confidence, ranging from the European financial crisis on the negative side of the balance sheet, to the positive impact of a fourth quarter resurgence in our domestic stock markets.  Although one never knows for sure that the real estate market has bottomed until historical data shows that it has already turned up, we believe that it is doubtful that we will see any further erosion in Lamorinda real estate prices.   The bottom may have already been reached, and we think that 2012 will bring price stabilization and perhaps some slightly improved property valuations over recent years.  The downward leg of the cycle may be broken.

Although our micro-market of Lamorinda often behaves much differently than the overall Contra Costa market, and profoundly different than the “national market”, it is worth evaluating the encouraging trends we are seeing on a county-wide basis.  Keep in mind that an enormous proportion of the county sales data is comprised of Antioch and Pittsburg which have been at the forefront of the national foreclosure market.  As a result, strong positive movement in the county inventory and sales statistics serve to make an even more significant statement about the improving conditions of our market.

The December 2011 market data showed a profound 44% drop in inventory from the same period in 2010, while pending sales grew by 17%.  This resulted in reducing the 3.2 months of inventory in December 2010 to only 1.8 months in December 2011.  It’s a very significant improvement in the market, and we believe it signals price stabilization and perhaps even selective shoring up of prices in some areas.

Within our Lamorinda real estate market, the inventory decline tracks with the county, experiencing a reduction of 46% over December of 2010.  The statistic that we didn’t really expect to find is that inventory levels for December 2011 dropped to the lowest level we have seen for 5+ years!  To underscore the apparent health of the market, closed sales for December 2011 were up 36% over the previous December.  Pending sales, the leading edge of the market, were up slightly over last year.  This was likely due to the depletion of inventory and the shortage of homes in many price segments.   Prices decreased 4.7% in Lamorinda when evaluating the 2nd half of 2011 over the same period in 2010.

When this series continues… you’ll find out about the strength and weakness of particular segments of the Lamorinda real estate market, and what we believe lies ahead!


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Lamorinda Home Sales — Common Mistakes When Selling a Home

5 01 2012

As we start the year, we’ll also be heading closer to the prime selling season of the year in Lamorinda real estate, and working with our seller clients in preparing their homes for sale.  Most of our clients are wonderful, reasonable people who make the psychological shift from “living” in their home to “merchandising” it for sale.  There is a distinct difference.  Very few of us “live” in our homes in a manner consistent with optimizing its opportunity to be sold for the highest price available in the market.  That requires presenting it as a product that appeals to the broadest possible segment of buyers.

I attended graduate school in business more years ago than I’d care to admit, but the person synonymous with marketing back then still lives on as the present day authority… Dr. Phillip Kotler of the Kellogg School of Management.  Considered to be the “guru” of modern marketing, Dr. Kotler is famous for his “4 P’s of Marketing” — the only four variables that can be controlled when bringing a product to market:

1) Product – What is presented to the market.

2) Price –  It’s price point.

3) Promotion – How it is promoted in the marketplace.

4) Place –  Where it is brought to market.

Ultimately, the seller of a property has the final control over 2 or 3 of the 4P’s… product, price, and place.  This leaves promotion in the hands of their selected real estate agent.  A quality agent will also be highly involved in helping to “shape” the home (product) prior to it going on-market, but only to the extent that the seller cooperates in the process.

The following are the most common mistakes we see sellers make when putting their home on the market:

1.  “The Stalker”:  This is seller that believes that he/she is the best spokesperson for their home, and therefore follows other agents and their buyers around the home when it is being shown — trying to “sell” them on it throughout their visit.  Yes, believe it or not, this happens here in Lamorinda!  Nothing turns a prospective buyer off more than this behavior, and it inevitably leads to the buyer and their agent becoming very uncomfortable — leaving the home as quickly as possible.  The best advice is to take a walk, go shopping or visit a neighbor… and, give the buyers space to mentally “move into” your home.

2.  “I just want to ‘test’ the market”:  This is akin to being partially pregnant.  Either you are on the market with the intention of selling or you should be waiting until you are truly ready to engage in the process.  ”Testing” the market at an unrealistic price point serves no real purpose.  Today’s buyers are highly informed, and no one in this market will over-pay for a home.

3.  ”I’m waiting for the one ‘right’ buyer” :  Most agents have heard this comment at least once per selling season, and its usually emanates from the seller who thinks that their home is worth more than the market suggests, or doesn’t adequately prepare the home for market because they believe that the “one right buyer” will overlook its flaws, cluttered rooms, etc.  Rarely is there the “one right buyer” who will make an offer on a significantly over-priced home, or want a home that the majority of the market chooses not to purchase.  The best advice is to prepare your home for market in a manner that will have it appeal to the broadest possible base of potential buyers.

4. “If I price my house closer to market, I’m afraid I’ll get ‘low-balled’”:  If the feedback from showings of your home is that its “over-priced”,  then the above concern seems a bit illogical.  As a seller, you WANT an offer.  You can always counter it, say “no” to it, or even ignore it.  Assuming that there aren’t other corrective actions you can take to make your home more appealing, addressing a clear over-pricing issue is the most logical move.  Studies have clearly demonstrated that a home that is properly priced from the beginning will sell faster and for more money than one that is initially over-priced.

5.  “My home doesn’t need to be staged.  It wasn’t staged 30 years ago when I bought it!”  Times have changed, and it’s important to make the psychological break from “living” in your home to “selling” your home.  Once it’s on the market, it becomes a product, so why not make it as appealing to buyers as possible?!  The incremental investment for staging will yield a positive return in the increased appeal of your home to potential buyers and the shorter market time.  Remember, the longer a home is on the market, the more the market discounts it.  At a certain point, buyers and agents begin to wonder “what’s wrong” with the home, and showings dramatically drop off.


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Funny Tales in Lamorinda Real Estate

30 12 2011

With the year winding down, I thought that a bit of Lamorinda real estate levity might be in order.  Some might think that real estate in Lamorinda is serious business.  Most of the time it is, but there are some funny moments that are worth remembering, even if they didn’t seem humorous at the time.  Here’s my top 5 list in no particular order:

  • Landmines in Lafayette real estate — We were meeting with a prospective listing client who wanted to show us her yard via a trip out to a deck and down some stairs to the lawn.  She failed to warn us that the stairs and the lawn were her beloved dog’s favorite poop repository, and I ended up stepping in it with both of my Allen Edmonds dress shoes by the time I reached ground level.  To make matters worse, the people never ended up listing their house.  My sacrifice was in vain.
  • Room for the entire family — Sticking to the same theme… we had waited months for a client to be ready to show us their home.  These were fastidious, sophisticated, professional people who were always meticulously groomed.  Upon viewing their home for the first time, we found that they had dedicated a large room to their two dogs.  Well, the dogs lived in the room as you’d expect they would without frequent access to the outdoors.  Arggghhh!  We recommended that the house be vacated, the floors and joists replaced to remedy the odor problem, followed by an interior “facelift” and staging.  It sold and the entire family found a new home.
  • How to increase listing traffic for the male buyer — I was showing a client a gorgeous Lafayette view home when I noticed that he was spending an undue amount of time staring beyond the patio railings at what I thought was the incredible view of Mt. Diablo.  Upon walking over to him, I realized that the view he was taking in was of the three young women, sunbathing nude at the pool below.  It was pretty hilarious as I tried to subtly alert them to our presence as they scrambled to gather the closest clothing items.  “Excuse us!… Is it alright to come on down?”
  • An entrepreneur or simply afternoon recreation? — I made an appointment to show a client a large Lafayette estate property, and was told that the “owner” would be on premises to “keep an eye” on things.  We showed up and were greeted by a woman wearing an ultra-tight dress that might be suitable for a night at the clubs, but not for an afternoon at home in Lafayette.  Upon reaching the master bedroom, we found a large 4-poster bed with a large mirror mounted inside the canopy.  My clients called me into the closet where they found a huge assortment of provocative outfits, the largest collection of stiletto heels we’ve ever seen, and various other related accessories.  I’ll leave the details to your imagination.  Who says life in Lafayette isn’t exciting!?
  • Stuck — A number of years ago, my wife was previewing a vacant property for a client, and needed to use the home’s restroom.  When she attempted to open the bathroom door to exit, she found that the knob was not working and that the door was stuck shut.  She had left her cell phone in the car, so calling for help was not an option.  After about 20 minutes of desperate banging on the door, it miraculously opened! 

Perhaps the most important lesson from all of this is to never lose your sense of humor.


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The Case for Stabilized Prices in Lamorinda Real Estate

18 12 2011

My post from earlier this week displayed statistics suggesting a favorable relationship between inventory and demand across most price segments in the Lamorinda real estate market.  Since markets are driven by the relationship of supply and demand, the local stats seem to be suggesting that we may have reached the point of price stabilization in Lamorinda.  This past week, national data was released that is very supportive of what I’m seeing in our market.

According to Corelogic, an independent provider of financial and market data, “many housing statistics are basically moving sideways.”  The Corelogic stats suggest an emerging trend of price stabilization when one removes distressed sale transactions from a given market area.  In the case of the Lamorinda real estate market, there are very few distressed property transactions, therefore even a stronger case can be made for the stabilization of our market.

Early in the housing downturn, non-distressed properties were falling in price at at the same rate as bank-owned, distressed properties.  Not wanting to hold inventory longer than they had to, banks quickly cut prices to move foreclosed homes.  The downdraft in prices took non-distressed properties along for the ride.  That appears to be changing as consumers differentiate between distressed and non-distressed real estate.  In fact, according to an article in the Wall St. Journal, “…while price declines are resuming, they are not yet falling from one-year ago for non-distressed homes. In fact, during the first nine months of 2011, prices of non-distressed homes remained relatively stable, with year-over-year declines between 2% and 3%.”  This is on a national basis, and analysts at Barclays Capital called this “the most important trend in the housing industry right now.”

Taking this a step further, Barclay’s housing analyst Stephen Kim stated, “a distressed home is increasingly being seen as a poor substitute for a non-distressed home….bifurcation between distressed and non-distressed homes will only widen with the passage of time.”  To a large extent, I have seen this in the Lamorinda real estate market, with buyers shying away from the small handful of distressed properties that we’ve seen hit the market.  They are often in poor condition, and with a bank’s limited disclosure obligations, the buyer must be extraordinarily careful during their due diligence period.

The greatest stabilization in Lamorinda real estate will be found in the sub-$1.2M price segment, with progressive softening as one moves up-market.  Once the market re-awakens from its seasonal winter hibernation, I am expecting a fairly robust spring market.


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Lamorinda Real Estate Market Forecast For 2012

13 12 2011

I’m quietly stirring my healthful cup of green tea this morning as I carefully read the tea leaves and try to carefully craft my predictions for 2012 Lamorinda real estate.  Let’s begin with the broader economy and work our way to greater specificity:

1.  Volatility will persist in the US financial markets:  Volatility is driven by uncertainty, therefore we will continue to see broad swings in the market as we work our way through financial recovery and the winds of change in world markets.  The volatility will impact consumer confidence, potentially in both a negative and positive manner as 2012 unfolds.

2.  The Bay Area economy will significantly outpace overall US economic recovery:  We are most fortunate to be living in such a dynamic area of the US — rich with cultural and business diversity.  The foundation of net job growth in the Bay Area has its origin in entrepreneurship and the creation of new businesses.  According to the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation research on this subject,  about 3M jobs are created annually across the US from new businesses.  Within the Bay Area, there are approximately 470 entrepreneurs per 100K in population, with a resulting significant positive impact on job growth all around the bay, including within our world of Lamorinda real estate.  A strong job market bolsters consumer confidence, and in turn, strengthens our housing market.

3.  There are clear signs of improvement ahead in Lamorinda real estate:  For those poised to pounce on my words, don’t misinterpret them to mean that prices are going to start heading up, or that 2012 won’t have its real estate challenges.  I am going out on a moderately strong limb and suggesting that the Lamorinda real estate environment will be better in 2012 than it has been in the last several years.  Let’s take a look at some empirical data that seems to support my conclusion:

Lamorinda Real Estate Through Nov 2011

The chart shows:

A.  A significant drop in inventory from 2010 to 2011.

B.  A historically healthy relationship of 2-4 mos of inventory against pending sales throughout most of 2011

C.  Improved strength in the market during Nov 2011 when the market is normally sluggish.

4.  The strongest market segments will be homes priced under $1.5M:  Once one crosses the threshold into Lamorinda real estate’s “upper” price ranges of about $1.5M+, the market changes dramatically, as vividly shown by the following chart:

The following facts apply to this segment:

A.  The upper market segments were the last to be impacted by the housing downturn, and will be the last to recover.

B.  They are the least affordable homes in the present market, therefore simple supply and demand relationships suggest that it will be softer than more affordable segments.

C.  ”Shadow inventory” held by banks may still impact this segment.  We really don’t know how many homes the banks are holding in various states of foreclosure.  Until this inventory is cleared, the market cannot fully recover.  Fortunately, Lamorinda real estate has been only lightly affected by foreclosure properties.

5.  Investors and home buyers will seek investment in real estate as an asset class.  Real estate is a very attractive asset class given the volatility of the stock market, it’s seemingly unpredictable behavior, and our extraordinarily low interest rates.  As we saw happen in late 2001 and 2002, investment money flowed into real estate following the extreme volatility of the financial markets.  While I don’t expect a repeat of that volume of activity, I do foresee that confidence in real estate will increase in 2012, which will result in more people investing in the asset class for both cash flow, capital appreciation, and for home ownership.

6.  The imbalance of “power” will still reside with the buyer.   Just to be clear, sellers who have been “waiting out the market” hoping to get “their price” will be disappointed.  This is no time to be “testing the market” or looking for “that one right buyer” who will pay an over-market price.  We’ll be in a recovery mode in 2012, but that does not mean that prices will move up.  For buyers, interest rates will likely stay close to the present ultra-low levels throughout 2012, so your timing may never be better to jump into the market.

Let me know what YOU think!


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Categories : Lafayette CA Real Estate Forecast, Lafayette CA Real Estate Market, Lafayette, CA Real Estate, Lamorinda Housing Market, Lamorinda Real Estate Forecast, Lamorinda Real Estate Market Statistics, Lamorinda Real Estate Pricing, Uncategorized

How’s Lamorinda Real Estate Doing vs. the “National Market”?

10 11 2011

A flurry of media attention is once again turning to the performance of the “national real estate market” as third quarter performance shows less than encouraging results.  According to a Wall Street Journal article, US home prices dropped 4.7% for the third quarter 2011 over 2010.  A nationwide interactive map shows locally that the San Jose metro area dropped 5.3%, the SF-Oakland-Fremont metro area dropped 10%, and the Sacramento area continued its decline with another 10% loss over the same period.  Looking just at the Lamorinda market, we also saw a 10% dip in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis — clearly sharing in the pain of the uncertain European economies and a turbulent stock market.  Inventories in Lamorinda dropped almost 26% versus the same period last year, while the number of closed sales dropped 11.5%.

Looking at just the month of October 2011, we saw a healthy 30% drop in inventory over October 2010, while seeing only an 8% drop in new pending sales, representing the leading edge of the market.  The sub-million dollar segment has been the strongest of all price segments in the last couple of years, and we saw a 14% rise in inventory in October vs. September of this year.  Perhaps more sellers were trying to jump in and capitalize on the segment’s strength with the month’s unseasonably warm weather. Pending sales as a percentage of total inventory in the segment was very similar to 2010, yet the median price for the segment sunk by a surprising 13% over October 2010.

The $1M – $1.5M segment showed a remarkable resurgence last month in the world of Lamorinda real estate.  Inventories dropped 28% over October of 2010, while pending sales jumped up 62% to a total of 13 sales for the month against an inventory of 41 homes.  Pending sales in the $1.5M – $2M segment showed some improvement over Oct 2010, as well, with a total of 3 units in this category against an inventory of 16 homes. The Lamorinda real estate market above $2M continues to be almost non-existent. There was just 1 new pending sale in October against an inventory of 20 homes — equating to 20 months of inventory in this segment!

Clearly, the last quarter was a very challenging one economically across ALL markets, not just real estate.  Ultimately, consumer confidence and jobs drive the real estate market, and we have a ways to go in both areas.  On a positive note, we’ve received several calls from agents representing buyers who are not finding good matches for their clients in the $1.5M+ segments, and have been seeking an opportunity to have us arrange showings of homes that are not on the market.  As the market continues to adjust, over-pricing is an issue in all segments, but particularly in the upper tiers of the market.


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Need Help Around the Home in the world of Lamorinda Real Estate??

28 10 2011

It’s Friday in the world of Lamorinda Real Estate, so I’m going to take a less serious approach to today’s post.  Then again, depending upon the needs of your household, this post may be one of the most useful you’ve read in quite awhile!  We’ll see.

Whether we are venturing through our cozy world of Lafayette real estate, where we tend to encounter the most clients, or the broader universe of Lamorinda, we frequently are asked for recommendations for handymen, electricians, and other trades people.  Sometimes the needs of our Lamorinda real estate clients aren’t that specific… perhaps they just need some help packing boxes, running errands, decluttering, etc.  So… let me introduce you to an amazing new resource — TaskRabbit.

Just about 3 years ago, Leah Busque founded TaskRabbit, recognizing the significant amount of skilled and unskilled talent that was either unemployed or was resident in people who simply had additional time on their hands.  Additionally, there was an understanding that lots of us have unfulfilled needs for tasks in our busy lives that we’d love to be able to outsource to trustworthy people.  TaskRabbit does a brilliant job of bringing people together on their site — those with unfilled needs for tasks to be completed, and those seeking to fullfill tasks (TaskRabbits).

To make this marketplace more appealing, TaskRabbit.com actually vets the prospective TaskRabbits, doing extensive background checks to make sure you are hiring trustworthy people.  Additionally, they’ve created transparency in the market by allowing the people who’ve hired the TaskRabbits to rate them — so you’ll be able to view their profiles and ratings before hiring them.  Unlike disorganized marketplaces such as Craigslist, TaskRabbit provides both organization and a sense of community — fostering trust.  Also, like the name implies, it also focuses on getting tasks completed for people, from running errands, packing boxes, to more skilled functions.

Poised for growth, TaskRabbit just hired Eric Grosse as their new CEO.  Grosse comes to TaskRabbit with an impressive list of accomplishments –  most recently serving as Expedia Worldwide’s first President.  They are a company to watch, but for right now, a company to use for fulfilling the tasks that you can’t do yourself.  If you are getting ready to move in the world of Lamorinda Real Estate, and are overwhelmed by all of the things you need to do, TaskRabbit.com is the perfect fit!  Here’s the link again, so hop on over:  TaskRabbit.com.


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Six Reasons Why the New HARP Refi Plan Will Be Good for Lamorinda Real Estate

24 10 2011

Since all markets are governed fundamentally by supply and demand, keeping unnecessary supply off the market is a favorable outcome when it can be accomplished.  This is exactly what the administration’s new HARP Refi Plan will accomplish in the Lamorinda real estate market, and across the nation.  The new plan will allow borrowers to refinance to today’s much lower rates, regardless of how far their homes have fallen, according to today’s Wall Street Journal.

1)  The borrowers will be able to do it in a much more streamlined manner, in many cases without the need for a new appraisal or extensive income documentation, as long as the borrower is current on their payments and can demonstrate a steady stream of income sufficient to cover the new loan payment.

2)  If you’ve got a second mortgage, the good news is that most major lenders have agreed to subordinate the second under this new program.

3)  Fannie and Freddie fees normally charged to riskier borrowers will be waived if the borrower refinances into a shorter term mortgage, e.g., a 15-year term from the previous 30-year mortgage.

4)  Lenders are expected to start taking applications for this new program in early December.

5)  There’s an easy way for you to find out of your loan is owned by Freddie or Fannie.  Just click on the links provided — Freddie or Fannie.

6)  Finally, allowing these borrowers to refinance to much lower rates will put an estimated $24B back into our economy AND keep many homes from drifting into foreclosure.  Going back to my original premise that markets are governed by supply and demand, keeping unnecessary supply down will help bolster prices which is always good news in the world of Lamorinda real estate!

 


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Categories : Lafayette CA Foreclosures, Lafayette CA Real Estate Market, Lafayette CA Real Estate Refinance, Lamorinda Foreclosures, Lamorinda Housing Market, Lamorinda Real Estate, Lamorinda real estate loans, Lamorinda Real Estate Refinance

It May Be About the Inventory in the Lamorinda Real Estate Market.

23 10 2011

A recent Wall Street Journal article raised several questions about supply and demand in the housing market, and it struck a resonate chord with what we are seeing in the world of Lamorinda real estate.  The Journal article raised the question about whether “it’s low demand or poor supply that’s hurting the housing market.”   Due to the fact that we tend to market a substantial number of homes in the Lafayette real estate market, we’ve received at least 5 calls from other agents in the last couple of weeks, asking if we have any new inventory that will be coming on the market.  The agents all explain that their clients simply aren’t finding what they want among the current Lafayette real estate offerings.  Almost all of the calls have have been in the $1.5M – $2M segment — an area of the market that has been one of the most negatively impacted over the last couple of years.

The Journal article discusses a number of factors contributing to the perception of poor quality or inadequate inventory, and notes that over-pricing is a significant factor.  We have found this to be true, particularly over the last few years as the market has been declining. In at least 50 percent of all of our interactions with sellers, the challenge for us is to help the client understand the state of the market and where their home should be priced in order to compete effectively.  It’s often as emotional as it is intellectually challenging, because it is sometimes very hard for sellers to grasp that the home they cherish so much has been impacted by the broader market conditions. They often want to believe that they’ve somehow been spared from the degradation in home values, or that “the right buyer” will come along who “will pay our price”, but ultimately they need to face the market realities.  In the end, over-pricing hurts them as the market discounts their price over time, and consumers begin to wonder “what’s wrong with that house”.

As we look at the current Lamorinda real estate inventory, there is a fair amount of over-pricing in certain segments that is undoubtedly keeping buyers away, coupled with overall declines in inventory over the last year.  Some sellers have simply taken their homes off the market and are deferring plans to downsize until they see stabilization in prices.  That stabilization is already happening in certain price segments, and may spread to others if we see broader confidence in the economy as we move into the Spring market. Ultimately, that may solve our inventory problem.


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