It’s that time of month again when we get to look back at how the Lamorinda real estate market has performed and to recalibrate our expectations for the future. As most of you know by now, I try to be well-grounded in facts when counseling others on important real estate matters, even when their is an inherently high level of subjectivity in the interpretation of the data. Let’s begin by taking a look at how the Lamorinda real estate market looked as of May 1st with the release of the official market statistics:
The Lamorinda Real Estate Market
- Inventory levels are at a similar level to last year’s, however sales levels are running at more than double the 2009 rate.
Like all statistics, the more closely you look at them, the more useful they are. Let’s begin by looking at the $1M and under market segment:
The Lamorinda Real Estate Market Under $1M
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Representing a little over one-third of the total inventory, the sub-$1M market segment in Lamorinda accounts for over half of the sales in the present market!
Let’s take a look at the broad “mid-market” segment of $1M – $2M:
The Lamorinda Mid-Market Segment of $1M - $2M
- As one might expect, the performace in this segment is much different from the sub-$1M range. Less than 20% of the homes on the market actuallysold and closed escrow in April, and the “pending” sales show forward momentum of roughly one in four homes selling. Competition is much keener.
Let’s now look at Lamorinda’s upper-end market… homes priced at $2M+:
Lamorinda's Upper End Market at $2M+
- A much different picture emerges for the upper-end market, although April was a sensational month with 7 homes over $2M going into escrow — all in the first two weeks of the month, and all but one located in Lafayette.
There are some telling indicators of what lies ahead:
- In the first week and a half of May, inventory levels in Lamorinda have risen more than 20%, and now stand at 270 homes… up from 221 homes at the close of April.
- An incremental 24 homes have gone “pending” since May 1st, suggesting a sales run-rate approximately equal to April’s. With the Memorial Day weekend ahead, we may see that this month’s sales end up at a lower level than April’s.
- The greatest competition is in the upper-end market… home’s priced at $2M+. As of today, there are 40 homes in this price range on the market in Lamorinda and one incremental “pending” sale since May 1st.
