Lamorinda Real Estate — Climbing Out of the Canyon

24 02 2012

As I’ve often written, you never know that you’ve reached the bottom of a market until its on the way up.  In recent months, I’ve strongly suggested that we had hit bottom in the world of Lafayette real estate, as well as the greater Lamorinda area, and would maybe see some upward trajectory to the market in 2012.  For what its worth, it now appears that the national media is coming to a similar conclusion with the fictitious “national market”, and is starting to run positive stories on the resurgence of real estate markets across the US.

According to a Wall St. Journal article from earlier this week, “Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. rose last month to the highest level in nearly two years, and the inventory of unsold homes contracted to a level considered healthy by economists, positive signs for the housing market.”  Additionally, Guy Berger, U.S. economist with RBS Capital Markets, wrote that some of the recent growth in home sales may have been the result of the mild winter. “But for the most part, it seems that the housing sector may have turned the corner.”

It’s too early to see all of the positive indicators reflected in the housing statistics for the Larmorinda real estate market.  Sometimes it’s simply the intangible, subjective factors that one has to run with to anticipate a turn in the market.  A week ago I was working with our client on the evaluation of 4 offers received on a Lafayette home priced just under $1M.  While I can’t yet share where the offers came in, the quantity of offers and their financial strength certainly was a quick litmus test for the market.  Furthermore, as part of my due diligence, I spoke to the respective agents and gained further insight into the buyers’ motivation level.  Clearly, the experience reinforced my positive outlook for the market.

We have another Lafayette home that is just about a week away from closing escrow and was purchased before completion by a reader of this blog.  Ironically, within about 2 weeks of going into escrow, we received several online inquiries about the property via its website — from both agents and buyers.  One buyer said that she found it by searching for “Coming Soon” real estate in Lafayette!  She is highly motivated to buy and frustrated by the low inventory in her price segment.

Sometimes, just talking with other brokers can yield insight to the market and a feeling for what lies ahead.  While viewing new properties to the market on Tuesday,  we had numerous agents ask us what sorts of properties we have on their way to the market — all telling us that they have many buyers with unsatisfied needs based upon current inventory.

If you’ve ever been at the bottom of a canyon, you know that the climb out can be slow and sometimes fraught with some setbacks along the way.  I think we’ve begun our journey out, and will soon be able to look down and see some of the scattered debris left in the tracks of the market below.





Random Thoughts in the World of Lamorinda Real Estate…

16 02 2012

Ah… what to write?  Do you really want to hear that economists at the International Builders Show are predicting a 16% improvement in new home sales for 2012, or that they think that the market “bottom” (in the non-existent “national market”, of course), will finally be reached in a year or so?  Does anyone really care, or hold them accountable for their predictions?  Personally, I view economists similarly to meteorologists.  Most of us wish we could get compensated for being right less than 50% of the time.  Locally, inventories climbed about 25% in January, while sales remained flat.  About one in four homes are selling — so all is well in the winter world of Lamorinda real estate!

There is always demand in a healthy Lafayette real estate market for great homes at fair prices.  One of our blog readers is the fortunate buyer of a spectacular, newly-constructed home in Lafayette that he was able to purchase prior to it going on-market. In fact, there seems to be so much pent-up demand for great homes in this price segment that we received numerous inquiries about this property via it’s website. Unfortunately for those people, the home was already in escrow.  The whole experience did validate the power of blogging, online marketing,  and proper use of Search Engine Optimization to insure that the client websites we build are actually found  by real buyers.

Other Thursday musings… if you haven’t yet attended any of the speaker series events at the incredible Lafayette Library and Learning Center , you are missing one of the great resources of this community.  As some of you may know, I am a life-long, passionate photographer who spends much of my time away from real estate, immersed in photography.  Last Sunday, the Lafayette Library brought in world-renowned portrait photographer, Michael Collopy, who spoke for over an hour about his impressive career photographing  the last 5 US Presidents, Mother Theresa, and almost every notable celebrity you can think of.  It was a fascinating glimpse into a man who has been able to live his passion, as well as into the personalities of many of the celebrities on the other side of his lens.  You can sign up for notifications of upcoming events via the Library website, or by “Liking” them on Facebook.  By the way, don’t forget to “Like” us on Facebook, too!





Lamorinda Home Sales — Common Mistakes When Selling a Home

5 01 2012

As we start the year, we’ll also be heading closer to the prime selling season of the year in Lamorinda real estate, and working with our seller clients in preparing their homes for sale.  Most of our clients are wonderful, reasonable people who make the psychological shift from “living” in their home to “merchandising” it for sale.  There is a distinct difference.  Very few of us “live” in our homes in a manner consistent with optimizing its opportunity to be sold for the highest price available in the market.  That requires presenting it as a product that appeals to the broadest possible segment of buyers.

I attended graduate school in business more years ago than I’d care to admit, but the person synonymous with marketing back then still lives on as the present day authority… Dr. Phillip Kotler of the Kellogg School of Management.  Considered to be the “guru” of modern marketing, Dr. Kotler is famous for his “4 P’s of Marketing” — the only four variables that can be controlled when bringing a product to market:

1) Product – What is presented to the market.

2) Price –  It’s price point.

3) Promotion – How it is promoted in the marketplace.

4) Place –  Where it is brought to market.

Ultimately, the seller of a property has the final control over 2 or 3 of the 4P’s… product, price, and place.  This leaves promotion in the hands of their selected real estate agent.  A quality agent will also be highly involved in helping to “shape” the home (product) prior to it going on-market, but only to the extent that the seller cooperates in the process.

The following are the most common mistakes we see sellers make when putting their home on the market:

1.  “The Stalker”:  This is seller that believes that he/she is the best spokesperson for their home, and therefore follows other agents and their buyers around the home when it is being shown — trying to “sell” them on it throughout their visit.  Yes, believe it or not, this happens here in Lamorinda!  Nothing turns a prospective buyer off more than this behavior, and it inevitably leads to the buyer and their agent becoming very uncomfortable — leaving the home as quickly as possible.  The best advice is to take a walk, go shopping or visit a neighbor… and, give the buyers space to mentally “move into” your home.

2.  “I just want to ‘test’ the market”:  This is akin to being partially pregnant.  Either you are on the market with the intention of selling or you should be waiting until you are truly ready to engage in the process.  ”Testing” the market at an unrealistic price point serves no real purpose.  Today’s buyers are highly informed, and no one in this market will over-pay for a home.

3.  ”I’m waiting for the one ‘right’ buyer” :  Most agents have heard this comment at least once per selling season, and its usually emanates from the seller who thinks that their home is worth more than the market suggests, or doesn’t adequately prepare the home for market because they believe that the “one right buyer” will overlook its flaws, cluttered rooms, etc.  Rarely is there the “one right buyer” who will make an offer on a significantly over-priced home, or want a home that the majority of the market chooses not to purchase.  The best advice is to prepare your home for market in a manner that will have it appeal to the broadest possible base of potential buyers.

4. “If I price my house closer to market, I’m afraid I’ll get ‘low-balled’”:  If the feedback from showings of your home is that its “over-priced”,  then the above concern seems a bit illogical.  As a seller, you WANT an offer.  You can always counter it, say “no” to it, or even ignore it.  Assuming that there aren’t other corrective actions you can take to make your home more appealing, addressing a clear over-pricing issue is the most logical move.  Studies have clearly demonstrated that a home that is properly priced from the beginning will sell faster and for more money than one that is initially over-priced.

5.  “My home doesn’t need to be staged.  It wasn’t staged 30 years ago when I bought it!”  Times have changed, and it’s important to make the psychological break from “living” in your home to “selling” your home.  Once it’s on the market, it becomes a product, so why not make it as appealing to buyers as possible?!  The incremental investment for staging will yield a positive return in the increased appeal of your home to potential buyers and the shorter market time.  Remember, the longer a home is on the market, the more the market discounts it.  At a certain point, buyers and agents begin to wonder “what’s wrong” with the home, and showings dramatically drop off.





The Case for Stabilized Prices in Lamorinda Real Estate

18 12 2011

My post from earlier this week displayed statistics suggesting a favorable relationship between inventory and demand across most price segments in the Lamorinda real estate market.  Since markets are driven by the relationship of supply and demand, the local stats seem to be suggesting that we may have reached the point of price stabilization in Lamorinda.  This past week, national data was released that is very supportive of what I’m seeing in our market.

According to Corelogic, an independent provider of financial and market data, “many housing statistics are basically moving sideways.”  The Corelogic stats suggest an emerging trend of price stabilization when one removes distressed sale transactions from a given market area.  In the case of the Lamorinda real estate market, there are very few distressed property transactions, therefore even a stronger case can be made for the stabilization of our market.

Early in the housing downturn, non-distressed properties were falling in price at at the same rate as bank-owned, distressed properties.  Not wanting to hold inventory longer than they had to, banks quickly cut prices to move foreclosed homes.  The downdraft in prices took non-distressed properties along for the ride.  That appears to be changing as consumers differentiate between distressed and non-distressed real estate.  In fact, according to an article in the Wall St. Journal, “…while price declines are resuming, they are not yet falling from one-year ago for non-distressed homes. In fact, during the first nine months of 2011, prices of non-distressed homes remained relatively stable, with year-over-year declines between 2% and 3%.”  This is on a national basis, and analysts at Barclays Capital called this “the most important trend in the housing industry right now.”

Taking this a step further, Barclay’s housing analyst Stephen Kim stated, “a distressed home is increasingly being seen as a poor substitute for a non-distressed home….bifurcation between distressed and non-distressed homes will only widen with the passage of time.”  To a large extent, I have seen this in the Lamorinda real estate market, with buyers shying away from the small handful of distressed properties that we’ve seen hit the market.  They are often in poor condition, and with a bank’s limited disclosure obligations, the buyer must be extraordinarily careful during their due diligence period.

The greatest stabilization in Lamorinda real estate will be found in the sub-$1.2M price segment, with progressive softening as one moves up-market.  Once the market re-awakens from its seasonal winter hibernation, I am expecting a fairly robust spring market.





Lamorinda Real Estate Market Forecast For 2012

13 12 2011

I’m quietly stirring my healthful cup of green tea this morning as I carefully read the tea leaves and try to carefully craft my predictions for 2012 Lamorinda real estate.  Let’s begin with the broader economy and work our way to greater specificity:

1.  Volatility will persist in the US financial markets:  Volatility is driven by uncertainty, therefore we will continue to see broad swings in the market as we work our way through financial recovery and the winds of change in world markets.  The volatility will impact consumer confidence, potentially in both a negative and positive manner as 2012 unfolds.

2.  The Bay Area economy will significantly outpace overall US economic recovery:  We are most fortunate to be living in such a dynamic area of the US — rich with cultural and business diversity.  The foundation of net job growth in the Bay Area has its origin in entrepreneurship and the creation of new businesses.  According to the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation research on this subject,  about 3M jobs are created annually across the US from new businesses.  Within the Bay Area, there are approximately 470 entrepreneurs per 100K in population, with a resulting significant positive impact on job growth all around the bay, including within our world of Lamorinda real estate.  A strong job market bolsters consumer confidence, and in turn, strengthens our housing market.

3.  There are clear signs of improvement ahead in Lamorinda real estate:  For those poised to pounce on my words, don’t misinterpret them to mean that prices are going to start heading up, or that 2012 won’t have its real estate challenges.  I am going out on a moderately strong limb and suggesting that the Lamorinda real estate environment will be better in 2012 than it has been in the last several years.  Let’s take a look at some empirical data that seems to support my conclusion:

Lamorinda Real Estate Through Nov 2011

The chart shows:

A.  A significant drop in inventory from 2010 to 2011.

B.  A historically healthy relationship of 2-4 mos of inventory against pending sales throughout most of 2011

C.  Improved strength in the market during Nov 2011 when the market is normally sluggish.

4.  The strongest market segments will be homes priced under $1.5M:  Once one crosses the threshold into Lamorinda real estate’s “upper” price ranges of about $1.5M+, the market changes dramatically, as vividly shown by the following chart:

The following facts apply to this segment:

A.  The upper market segments were the last to be impacted by the housing downturn, and will be the last to recover.

B.  They are the least affordable homes in the present market, therefore simple supply and demand relationships suggest that it will be softer than more affordable segments.

C.  ”Shadow inventory” held by banks may still impact this segment.  We really don’t know how many homes the banks are holding in various states of foreclosure.  Until this inventory is cleared, the market cannot fully recover.  Fortunately, Lamorinda real estate has been only lightly affected by foreclosure properties.

5.  Investors and home buyers will seek investment in real estate as an asset class.  Real estate is a very attractive asset class given the volatility of the stock market, it’s seemingly unpredictable behavior, and our extraordinarily low interest rates.  As we saw happen in late 2001 and 2002, investment money flowed into real estate following the extreme volatility of the financial markets.  While I don’t expect a repeat of that volume of activity, I do foresee that confidence in real estate will increase in 2012, which will result in more people investing in the asset class for both cash flow, capital appreciation, and for home ownership.

6.  The imbalance of “power” will still reside with the buyer.   Just to be clear, sellers who have been “waiting out the market” hoping to get “their price” will be disappointed.  This is no time to be “testing the market” or looking for “that one right buyer” who will pay an over-market price.  We’ll be in a recovery mode in 2012, but that does not mean that prices will move up.  For buyers, interest rates will likely stay close to the present ultra-low levels throughout 2012, so your timing may never be better to jump into the market.

Let me know what YOU think!





How’s Lamorinda Real Estate Doing vs. the “National Market”?

10 11 2011

A flurry of media attention is once again turning to the performance of the “national real estate market” as third quarter performance shows less than encouraging results.  According to a Wall Street Journal article, US home prices dropped 4.7% for the third quarter 2011 over 2010.  A nationwide interactive map shows locally that the San Jose metro area dropped 5.3%, the SF-Oakland-Fremont metro area dropped 10%, and the Sacramento area continued its decline with another 10% loss over the same period.  Looking just at the Lamorinda market, we also saw a 10% dip in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis — clearly sharing in the pain of the uncertain European economies and a turbulent stock market.  Inventories in Lamorinda dropped almost 26% versus the same period last year, while the number of closed sales dropped 11.5%.

Looking at just the month of October 2011, we saw a healthy 30% drop in inventory over October 2010, while seeing only an 8% drop in new pending sales, representing the leading edge of the market.  The sub-million dollar segment has been the strongest of all price segments in the last couple of years, and we saw a 14% rise in inventory in October vs. September of this year.  Perhaps more sellers were trying to jump in and capitalize on the segment’s strength with the month’s unseasonably warm weather. Pending sales as a percentage of total inventory in the segment was very similar to 2010, yet the median price for the segment sunk by a surprising 13% over October 2010.

The $1M – $1.5M segment showed a remarkable resurgence last month in the world of Lamorinda real estate.  Inventories dropped 28% over October of 2010, while pending sales jumped up 62% to a total of 13 sales for the month against an inventory of 41 homes.  Pending sales in the $1.5M – $2M segment showed some improvement over Oct 2010, as well, with a total of 3 units in this category against an inventory of 16 homes. The Lamorinda real estate market above $2M continues to be almost non-existent. There was just 1 new pending sale in October against an inventory of 20 homes — equating to 20 months of inventory in this segment!

Clearly, the last quarter was a very challenging one economically across ALL markets, not just real estate.  Ultimately, consumer confidence and jobs drive the real estate market, and we have a ways to go in both areas.  On a positive note, we’ve received several calls from agents representing buyers who are not finding good matches for their clients in the $1.5M+ segments, and have been seeking an opportunity to have us arrange showings of homes that are not on the market.  As the market continues to adjust, over-pricing is an issue in all segments, but particularly in the upper tiers of the market.





Six Reasons Why the New HARP Refi Plan Will Be Good for Lamorinda Real Estate

24 10 2011

Since all markets are governed fundamentally by supply and demand, keeping unnecessary supply off the market is a favorable outcome when it can be accomplished.  This is exactly what the administration’s new HARP Refi Plan will accomplish in the Lamorinda real estate market, and across the nation.  The new plan will allow borrowers to refinance to today’s much lower rates, regardless of how far their homes have fallen, according to today’s Wall Street Journal.

1)  The borrowers will be able to do it in a much more streamlined manner, in many cases without the need for a new appraisal or extensive income documentation, as long as the borrower is current on their payments and can demonstrate a steady stream of income sufficient to cover the new loan payment.

2)  If you’ve got a second mortgage, the good news is that most major lenders have agreed to subordinate the second under this new program.

3)  Fannie and Freddie fees normally charged to riskier borrowers will be waived if the borrower refinances into a shorter term mortgage, e.g., a 15-year term from the previous 30-year mortgage.

4)  Lenders are expected to start taking applications for this new program in early December.

5)  There’s an easy way for you to find out of your loan is owned by Freddie or Fannie.  Just click on the links provided — Freddie or Fannie.

6)  Finally, allowing these borrowers to refinance to much lower rates will put an estimated $24B back into our economy AND keep many homes from drifting into foreclosure.  Going back to my original premise that markets are governed by supply and demand, keeping unnecessary supply down will help bolster prices which is always good news in the world of Lamorinda real estate!

 





It May Be About the Inventory in the Lamorinda Real Estate Market.

23 10 2011

A recent Wall Street Journal article raised several questions about supply and demand in the housing market, and it struck a resonate chord with what we are seeing in the world of Lamorinda real estate.  The Journal article raised the question about whether “it’s low demand or poor supply that’s hurting the housing market.”   Due to the fact that we tend to market a substantial number of homes in the Lafayette real estate market, we’ve received at least 5 calls from other agents in the last couple of weeks, asking if we have any new inventory that will be coming on the market.  The agents all explain that their clients simply aren’t finding what they want among the current Lafayette real estate offerings.  Almost all of the calls have have been in the $1.5M – $2M segment — an area of the market that has been one of the most negatively impacted over the last couple of years.

The Journal article discusses a number of factors contributing to the perception of poor quality or inadequate inventory, and notes that over-pricing is a significant factor.  We have found this to be true, particularly over the last few years as the market has been declining. In at least 50 percent of all of our interactions with sellers, the challenge for us is to help the client understand the state of the market and where their home should be priced in order to compete effectively.  It’s often as emotional as it is intellectually challenging, because it is sometimes very hard for sellers to grasp that the home they cherish so much has been impacted by the broader market conditions. They often want to believe that they’ve somehow been spared from the degradation in home values, or that “the right buyer” will come along who “will pay our price”, but ultimately they need to face the market realities.  In the end, over-pricing hurts them as the market discounts their price over time, and consumers begin to wonder “what’s wrong with that house”.

As we look at the current Lamorinda real estate inventory, there is a fair amount of over-pricing in certain segments that is undoubtedly keeping buyers away, coupled with overall declines in inventory over the last year.  Some sellers have simply taken their homes off the market and are deferring plans to downsize until they see stabilization in prices.  That stabilization is already happening in certain price segments, and may spread to others if we see broader confidence in the economy as we move into the Spring market. Ultimately, that may solve our inventory problem.





A Look at the Lamorinda Real Estate Market YTD 2011 and What Lies Ahead

21 10 2011

Let’s look at our local market as we work our way into the last quarter of the year and near the end of October.  Inventories have decreased significantly from this time last year… running about 25%+ below where they were last year.  In fact, we have been experiencing about 3 months of inventory in the Lamorinda market over the last several months – representing a very sound relationship between supply and demand.  This compares favorably to the 4-5 months of inventory that we were running at this time last year.  Absolute sales volumes have decreased from last year, particularly in August and September where we saw a reduction of about 20 percent from 2010.  This clearly reflects the uncertainty emanating from global financial markets, and the extreme volatility we’ve seen in the US stock markets.

As one would imagine, the most active markets have been those most approachable to buyers.  Approximately 70 percent of all Lamorinda sales this year have been at price points below $1M.  Other trends worth noting include the move toward more central, urbanized locations.  This began on a more macro basis as people began moving back to urban centers such as San Francisco several years ago.  It has been a function of rising gas prices; aging baby boomers selling suburban homes; and general movement favoring locations where one can walk to shopping, entertainment, and restaurants.

This trend has played out within our community, too, as we’ve seen distinct premiums paid for perceived central locations such as Lafayette’s “Trail Neighborhood” and Happy Valley.  In some cases, a 5 minute commute differential can command a 15% premium in the market.  As an example, we had a recent listing near the “Trail Neighborhood” get bid up by $100,000 in the sub-million dollar price range within 3 days of going on-market.   There have been larger properties in this area that were bid up several hundred thousand dollars during the peak of our spring 2011 market.  Other segments have been much slower, such as the $1.5M – $2M range where there wasn’t a single home that went pending in the month of September throughout Lamorinda.  Sales above $2M have been scarce this year, averaging about 1 per month in Lafayette.

So, what lies ahead?  As we enter the wet winter months, we will see normal seasonality seize control of the market, and overall transaction volumes decrease.  Typically, the market lies mostly dormant until mid-February when it seems to slowly come out of hibernation.  Interest rates will remain low for the next couple of years, so job creation and consumer confidence will play the most dominant role in dictating the performance of the housing market as we enter 2012.  Another “wild card” in the equation involves the disposition of bank assets… the properties in some phase of financial distress and not yet in the marketplace.   Recent bank industry announcements have suggested this process will accelerate — a necessary element to cleansing the market and creating more stabilization.  In the short term, it could increase inventories and put additional pressure on prices.

Finally, with immense amounts of cash on their books, we could also see significant hiring increases from corporate America in the months ahead if our elected representatives can find some common ground to provide the needed confidence and incentives to grow their businesses.  Should that happen, we could see better than expected improvement in consumer confidence and the housing market as we move through the coming year.





Fall in Lamorinda Real Estate… Travels Abroad

25 09 2011

For those wondering if I fell off the globe for a few weeks, the answer is, “sort of”.  There never is an ideal time to take time off in this business, so early this year we planned an adventure to Italy and Croatia for early September.  The trip was epic, but the internet connectivity was marginal, at best.  So, with the best of intentions of keeping up on the blog, reality dictated otherwise.  In many respects, we take so much for granted here — the internet and ready-access to technology fall into that category.

Not a lot has changed in the market, but perhaps a fresh impression of matters upon returning from the trip has some advantages.  My sense is that in many cases, people are still struggling to find that delicate equilibrium that brings a willing buyer and seller together to consummate a sale.  Sellers of upper end homes are having a very difficult time processing whether their home is not selling because of price, or simply due to the the thin nature of the market.  Since there is almost always a willing buyer at the right price, the reality of the market is painful for many.  As always, when moving down-market closer to the $1M price point, simple supply and demand results in much more vigorous activity.  The world economic factors have clearly exacerbated matters, and the volatility of markets in the last week has certainly brought the issues front and center.

The Wall Street Journal quoted a senior economist, Sam Bullard, from Wells Fargo Securities, “With economic growth sputtering, the modest recovery we have seen so far in home sales is likely to become even more sluggish.”  The article goes on to mention that a survey of over 100 economists released by MacroMarkets, LLC,  predicts that national home prices will show a drop of about 2.5% this year, and then rise at just 1.1% annually through 2015.  Their chief economist is Robert Shiller of the noted S&P Case-Shiller Index. Even though we know that there is really no such thing as a “national market”, and that individual markets perform with some independence, “when the tide goes out, all ‘boats’ ride lower in the water.”

Let’s take a quick look at the latest Lamorinda real estate market statistics with data through August.  The number of pending sales dropped in August from July by 30 percent, and also declined by 14 percent from August of 2010 — likely reflecting the global market uncertainties that have clouded the economic news in recent weeks.  The upper end of the market continues to bear the majority of the pain with pending sales in the $1.5M+ segment dropping by 45 percent from the previous month, and an even 50 percent from August of 2010.

The good news is that economists seem to show some consensus that we’ve hit the bottom of the market, and it might diminish the uncertainty harbored by consumers. Furthermore, with equity markets displaying incredible volatility, perhaps people will look to real estate as one of the safer havens for their dollars.  We’ll see.








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