Home Inspections… Be Honest, Be Accountable, and Be Real.

15 05 2010

We live in a litigious business environment where people are often afraid of their own shadows and personal accountability is, at times, almost non-existent.  A recent article about the downfall of a well-respected local contractor brought this issue to light, coupled with a series of experiences that I’ve had with home inspectors over the last couple of weeks.  In combination, they compelled me to write this post.

Recently, a high profile contractor in the county was driven to bankruptcy by a series of lawsuits  – someone who was often utilized within the Lamorinda real estate market for evaluations of drainage and foundation issues.  A recent article in the CC Times reports on the “questionable home inspections” conducted by Brockman Engineering Contractors, his violation of a rarely enforced section of the California Business and Professions Code, and the law suits that wrecked financial disaster upon his business. In an environment where home owners, buyers, sellers, and members of the real estate community often find it extremely difficult to obtain honest and objective evaluations of drainage, retaining walls, and foundation issues, Brockman’s company was often utilized.   This post has nothing to do with the merits of the law suit that brought down his business, rather the inherent hypocrisy and lack of regulation surrounding “home inspections”.

The California Business and Professions Code states that no matter what it is called, any evaluation of a property during its sale is an “inspection” and the person or firm may not bid on repair work within 12 months.  This code section is rarely enforced and there are a multitude of licensed engineers with owned or affiliated construction firms who are in violation of this code on a daily basis.  In fact, several of them send engineers out to do “inspections” while they are on an incentive compensation plan tied to the amount of construction business they bring into the firm.  So much for the “objective, expert” home evaluation or for their consult being an “inspection”.

About 2 years ago we had a listing where the buyer’s agent brought in a local engineering construction company.  They were retained to evaluate a small amount of dampness under a very limited area of a hillside home that showed no objective evidence of foundation degradation, rot, or any other issues in the “damp” area during its 20+ years since construction.  The company’s engineer wrote up a “report” stating that the home needed approximately $60K in drainage work and foundation reinforcement.  In most cases, that report would have caused the buyer to back out of the sale, and the “report” would have become a disclosure document that the seller would have needed to make available to future buyers.

Fortunately, I was able to convince the other agent to allow an independent, highly regarded geotechnical engineer to evaluate the situation and render a report without any economic incentive to find “problems”.  The engineer found that the first “report” was riddled with errors.  The recommended drainage work was poorly designed and didn’t address surface water; the home had a foundation consistent with the design from the time period when built, and there was no evidence of any performance issues; and even the foundation retrofit work recommended by the first firm was found to be improperly designed, incomplete, and at best, an optional consideration for the buyer.  A second engineering and foundation contractor was brought in to bid the work recommended by the independent engineer, including the optional foundation retrofitting.  The bid came in at LESS than half of the original firm’s bid and included a much larger scope of work!  Unfortunately, the type of situation with the first firm happens all of the time to unsuspecting homeowners who are at the mercy of the inherent conflict of interest with contractors or their engineers doing “home inspections”.

We often hear of issues with licensed pest control companies who do the required “termite inspections” for home sellers, with an inherent conflict of interest built into the process.  These companies get to bid the work that they are recommending, prior to their final evaluation and “certification” of the property being free of “Section 1″ issues — active rot or pest infestation.  Differing from the situation described above, these companies are licensed by the state to do inspections, construction work, and certification.  So… how did this happen when the situations above violate the Business and Professions Code?  Ask the lobbyests for the pest control industry, or perhaps ask your elected state representatives.

Finally, this takes me to the “general home inspection” industry.  These people range from extremely competent inspectors with general contracting and sometimes engineering experience, to those who essentially take an online test and receive some sort of industry “certification”.  I just closed escrow on a purchase transaction where the listing agent had a “pre-inspection” done by a “certified” general home inspector.  When the inspector representing my buyer client went under the house, he found a portion of the home’s front being held up by several “screw jacks” positioned on the outside foundation, at least one that was bent from the precarious load.  This was not mentioned in the “pre-inspection” report.  When the first inspector was asked why it wasn’t mentioned, he said that he “didn’t think it was a problem”.  When I asked him why he chose to mention “uneven flagstone” on a garden pathway as a “potential trip hazard” and NOT mention screw jacks holding up part of the home’s perimeter, he was speechless.  He had missed it, clear and simple, Nevertheless, he stood by his story and tried to cover his “rear” by writing a letter stating that it was not a concern.  Our home inspector, a foundation contractor AND an engineer said it was a significant, but fixable problem.

This past week, the home inspector representing the buyer of one of our listings, stated that they should have a “drainage inspection”, and recommended that an HVAC and pest control company evaluate “evidence of rats” ENTERING the ductwork.  The home is located on a totally level lot, and was found to be “bone dry” underneath, following one of the wettest winters in the last 50 years, yet the home inspector recommended a “drainage inspection”.  Also, upon further questioning, it turned out that the home inspector “pushed the wrong button” on his tablet PC which caused the report comments about rats in the ductwork.  Fortunately, the buyer’s agent selected a drainage contractor with a high level of integrity who did a verbal “report” stating that no drainage work was needed.

Bottom line, even with all of the “protections” of disclosures, inspections, “certified” home inspectors, licensed pest control companies, and “inspections” by contractors, there is no substitute for a dose of common sense and the selection of competent, honest experts in the home evaluation process.





Lafayette, CA Real Estate Market Statistics and the Performance of the Lamorinda Market

11 05 2010

It’s that time of month again when we get to look back at how the Lamorinda real estate market has performed and to recalibrate our expectations for the future.  As most of you know by now, I try to be well-grounded in facts when counseling others on important real estate matters, even when their is an inherently high level of subjectivity in the interpretation of the data.  Let’s begin by taking a look at how the Lamorinda real estate market looked as of May 1st with the release of the official market statistics:

The Lamorinda Real Estate Market

  • Inventory levels are at a similar level to last year’s, however sales levels are running at more than double the 2009 rate.

Like all statistics, the more closely you look at them, the more useful they are.  Let’s begin by looking at the $1M and under market segment:

The Lamorinda Real Estate Market Under $1M

  •  Representing a little over one-third of the total inventory, the sub-$1M market segment in Lamorinda accounts for over half of the sales in the present market!

Let’s take a look at the broad “mid-market” segment of $1M – $2M:

The Lamorinda Mid-Market Segment of $1M - $2M

  • As one might expect, the performace in this segment is much different from the sub-$1M range.  Less than 20% of the homes on the market actuallysold and closed escrow in April, and the “pending” sales show forward momentum of roughly one in four homes selling.  Competition is much keener.

Let’s now look at Lamorinda’s upper-end market… homes priced at $2M+:

Lamorinda's Upper End Market at $2M+

  • A much different picture emerges for the upper-end market, although April was a sensational month with 7 homes over $2M going into escrow — all in the first two weeks of the month, and all but one located in Lafayette. 

There are some telling indicators of what lies ahead:

  • In the first week and a half of May, inventory levels in Lamorinda have risen more than 20%, and now stand at 270 homes… up from 221 homes at the close of April.
  • An incremental 24 homes have gone “pending” since May 1st, suggesting a sales run-rate approximately equal to April’s.  With the Memorial Day weekend ahead, we may see that this month’s sales end up at a lower level than April’s. 
  • The greatest competition is in the upper-end market… home’s priced at $2M+.  As of today, there are 40 homes in this price range on the market in Lamorinda and one incremental “pending” sale since May 1st.




Market Pulse… Lafayette Real Estate, Orinda, & Moraga

4 05 2010

In a recent Bay Area interview, Wells Fargo CEO John Stumph stated that our local economies had “begun to struggle back to their feet” following the long recession.  He went on to say that “we are even seeing a bounce off the bottom.”  Stumph shared that he worries about the Wells Fargo portfolio of home equity loans because of the fact that so many of them are “underwater” — meaning that there is little or no equity left to secure the loan.  Finally, he shared that his biggest “worry” is jobs as we work our way out of the recession. 

So, as we work our way out of the economic crater and approach the heart of the 2010 real estate market, let’s take a look at some quick facts and observations:

The Facts –

  • Inventories are rapidly climbing.  As of today, there are approximately 374 properties in the Lamorinda real estate market in the “Active” or “Pending” category.  By any measure, there is a LOT going on in our market!
  • Of the 374 properties, approximately 261 are “Active” and unsold, leaving about 113 as “Pending” in escrow.

Observations –

  • Buyers are tentative, but willing to jump into the market when they feel the time is “right”.  The only homes selling quickly, e.g., first week on-market, are the ones that are clearly underpriced to the market.  There have been several recent properties go into escrow inside of a week on-market.  In all cases, we felt that the property had been substantially underpriced and watched as agents scrambled to even get their clients to the home in time to see it and then potentially submit an offer.  Quite honestly, we have wondered about whose interests were really served via this strategy… agent or client. 
  • Most homes, no matter how beautifully presented and compelling, are taking weeks to gain traction in the market.  We have recently been involved in multiple offer situations on both sides of the transaction — once representing a buyer and another time a seller.  Both properties had been on the market for 2 or more weeks.  In one of the situations the winning bid was over asking price and the other it was under.  Just a couple of years ago, we would have never seen a property with 3 or more offers end up under list price.  In each of these situations, the buyers circled, and circled… then all decided to write offers once one of them mustered the courage to step forward. 

Approximately one in four homes in the Lafayette real estate market, Orinda & Moraga are selling.  This is encouraging.  In upcoming posts, I’ll take a more indepth  and telling look at individual market segments and the “anatomy” of some of the transactions.





Time to Jump In… but, Leave the Irrational Exuberance on the Sideline

25 04 2010

So many of our Lafayette real estate and other Lamorinda real estate clients have asked us over the last year or so whether “the time” has arrived to “jump in”, either as a buyer or seller.  My answer has always been one tempered with caveats about the unknown elements of world events and the economic implications of the recession that could impact my answer, but I also have always told these clients that one never knows if a market has bottomed until we’re looking at it in the “rear view mirror” after it turns up.  Last year, I told clients that I felt we were “bumping along the bottom” of the market and that I couldn’t see more than 5% downside risk as we moved from 2009 to 2010, with most of that risk at the upper end of the market where there had been very little transactional activity in 2009.  In retrospect, it appears to have been a pretty good market call.

As reported recently in the Wall St. Journal, the S&P/Case-Schiller survey results “suggest housing prices bottomed out around April 2009, when its 20-city composite index was down 32.6% from its peak reached in June/July 2006.”  The article goes on to say that, “Since then it has gained 3% through January 2010, with some markets much stronger, especially San Francisco and Minneapolis.”  This is very encouraging, but I would caution clients in their interpretation of local housing statistics that show rising prices, for they can be very misleading.  As an example, I mentioned a week or so ago that there were 7 homes over $2M that had gone pending within the Lafayette. CA real estate market inside of about a 14-day period. Assuming most of those homes close escrow in the May time frame, we’ll see the May statistics report a very significant rise in Lafayette’s median price. If the media picks up on our relatively small Lafayette real estate market, it will undoubtedly report a “sharp jump” in prices that won’t be truly reflective of the market.  Never take statistics at face value… always interpret them within the proper context.

Bottom line, there are lots of positive reasons to believe that the worst of the market is a ways behind us and that the outlook for the future is much more positive.  Other indicators include:

  • Sales of new single family homes jumped 27% last month on a nation-wide basis per the Wall St. Journal.  Sure, most of this is due to the expiring tax credit for first time buyers, but don’t forget the fact that we need to see this segment firm up to underpin the overall housing market.
  • The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.07% for the week ended April 15, down from 5.21% last week.  As reported, this rate is only slightly higher than the 4.82% average for a year ago during the depths of the market.

If you haven’t decided to jump in yet, now is probably the time to do so, but be sure to do it with reasonable expectations.





Downsizing to “Out-sizing”

19 04 2010

One of the issues we frequently encounter with our Lamorinda real estate clients is the question about whether this is the “right time” to sell, and often followed by the question of “where should be go?”  A recent article in the Wall St. Journal suggests that there could potentially be other options for consideration by those pondering where they should move next.  The article, “The New Suburbs, A Plane Ride Away” discusses how young professionals are now making moves to Pacific Northwest areas such as Portland and Seattle, and commuting to their jobs in the Bay Area.    Reasons given for the new trend include:

  • The greater availability of reasonably priced flights on Southwest Airlines and Virgin America
  • Better telecommuting technology and WiFi availability on flights
  • More flexible telecommuting policies by many companies
  • Superb quality of life in cities like Portland and Seattle… with Portland specifically noted for its outstanding urban design in the Pearl District, and
  • The extraordinary attractiveness of Pacific Northwest real estate values when compared to the Bay Area.

If this is viable for young professionals, then why not for empty-nesters who seek to restructure there financial obligations, perhaps still keep their hands in the Bay Area business world, and come back to visit friends and family on a frequent basis?  It’s an interesting and viable alternative to Bay Area housing costs, and one that may make the “sell now?” question easier to answer. At the very least, it’s food for thought.





The Spring Market Has Arrived, In Spite of the Weather

12 04 2010

The latest statistics for the Lamorinda real estate market clearly show that we have entered the heart of the Spring real estate market.

The following chart sheds a bit more light on the market and looks at the sales activity under the $1M price point:

The market segment from $1M to $2M showed signficant improvement in March, primarily at the under $1.5M range.  With the unit sales improvement, we also saw a signficant growth in inventory:

Finally, the upper end market remained challenged in Lamorinda for the month of March.  The following chart shows the sales activity in the $2M+ segment:

Stay tuned for a very encouraging update on sales activity for the first week or so of April!





More Thoughts on What’s Ahead for Lamorinda Real Estate

31 03 2010

According to a recent Wall St. Journal article, California housing prices have been on the rise, and the Bay Area has experienced a 20% rise in the median price of homes since February 2009 — now standing at $354,000.  Naturally, this price level bears no resemblance to Lafayette real estate or home prices found in Orinda or Moraga.  It does, however, align with what we have seen in our market area, where the highest velocity of sales is in the sub-$1M price range.

Counterbalancing this is the fact that default notices rose almost 20% in February and roughly 11% of all California homeowners with mortgages are 90 days or more delinquent on their payments.  With an “official” unemployment rate standing at around 12.5% for the state, we’ve still got a rough road ahead.  The market and consumer confidence are improving, but we have not yet shed the remnants of the enormous financial fire pit from which we are slowly climbing out.

More thoughts on trends/issues to contemplate over the coming months:

  • An increasing number of “down-sizers” who will be selling their larger Lamorinda real estate holdings and buying smaller single level homes within Lamorinda, but also taking advantage better value propositions in areas such as Alamo, Walnut Creek and Pleasant Hill.
  • As reported in the Wall St. Journal, “The Fed confirmed that it’s ending its $1.25 trillion purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, which enabled Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to help keep mortgage rates low by buying mortgages.”  This means that there will be increasing upward pressure on interest rates… not substantial by historical comparison, but nevertheless significant enough to potentially impact demand and prices.
  • At the upper end of the market, we are observing and hearing from other agents about Lamorinda real estate owners who are not yet delinquent on their mortgage payments, but their combined first and second deeds of trust exceed the market value of their property.  The new loan modification programs being introduced will hopefully help these people stay in their homes long enough to make the necessary adjustments to their personal finances.  Absent modifications helping them, these properties could find their way to short-sale or foreclosure.  This is something to watch closely as the 2010 market unfolds.
  • This will be the “year of the move-up buyer”.  With the greatest pressure found on higher priced homes, significant demand for lower priced homes, and historically low interest rates, most won’t find a better time to make the move up.
  • It may also be the best time to make the move out of Lamorinda real estate.  For empty-nesters considering retirement in out-of-state communities, California foothill communities, or other California secondary markets, the timing may never be better than right now.  Markets in “second home” communities have been pummeled over the last couple of years, selling at incredible discounts to where they were just a short time ago.  In the end analysis, its the delta between the equity netted from your present home sale and the cost of buying the replacement home that counts.




A Finger on the Pulse… A Current Look at the Anatomy of the Lamorinda Real Estate Market

30 03 2010

The year is shaping up to be a relatively strong one for Lamorinda real estate. With  a few 2010 transactions closed and behind us, several properties on the market, more on the way, and several active buyers as clients… I feel like we’ve got a pretty good gauge of the market’s “pulse”.  Naturally, time will tell, but here are the current early stage observations:

  • Corporate America has greatly increased the flow of employees  into the Bay Area with paid relocation plans  – a very expensive endeavor, but a sure sign that big business is feeling more confident about the economy and their profitability.  We are aware of many agents with clients obtained through relocation company affiliations — more than we’ve observed in at least a couple of years.
  • Consumer confidence appears to be much stronger than it has been in a long time.  People are out looking at homes and seriously evaluating making decisions to purchase across a broad range of Lamorinda’s home inventory.  We have found this to be true among our own clients , observed it to be the case based upon numerous conversations with people coming through Open Houses this year, as well as noted it based upon discussions with agents who have showed our listings.
  • Price sensitivity is still keen, but buyers are acting upon what they believe are fair market value acquisitions.  No one is willing to pay 2006 prices, however if priced in a manner that buyers perceive as  a “good value”, homes are selling.  The greatest market velocity is at the lower end of the market.
  • It’s a more normalized, rationale market… Except in extraordinary situations, there is a relatively low sense of urgency to buy.  People are taking their time making decisions, and as a result, homes are taking longer to sell.  The exception to this generalization is in the sub-$1M market of Lamorinda noted above.
  • Even with excellent, below market pricing, we are not seeing “irrational exuberance”.   I recently represented a client who wrote an offer on a Lamorinda property priced at least 10% below market, perhaps more.  There were only3 offers on the property.
  • The latest Fannie Mae underwriting guidelines have slowed the market.  A multitude of 2010 changes to underwriting standards have made it extremely difficult for a buyer to purchase a replacement home PRIOR to selling their existing home.  There are obvious exceptions for people with well above-average wealth, however there are many who could have qualified for the purchase of a replacement home or bridge loan even a year ago, and now they can’t.  As a result, I believe the peak period of activity in this year’s market will shift out a couple of months.  Also… expect to see more offers being made contingent upon the sale of another property, particularly in the $1.5M+ market segments.

That’s it for your Monday market observations and predictions!  Hopefully, I’ve shed provided some degree of incremental clarity to what has clearly been a confusing, muddy period in the world of real estate… even in Lamorinda!





The Lamorinda Market — What’s Going On?

23 03 2010

With all of the confusing news about real estate in the media these days, it’s hard for active professionals to keep track of what’s really going on, let alone for the consumer to sort out the truth about the market.  Most of the major media articles seem to be written to attract readers with overly generalized analysis and conclusions, or with an inflammatory headlines to attract attention.  In the last week or so, I’ve even seen the Wall St. Journal publish major real estate articles that seemingly contradict each other… one about home prices being on the rise in California, the other discussing the rise in foreclosures putting pressure on prices.  Let’s look quickly at what’s going on in the Lamorinda real estate market:

  • In March of 2009, a total of 21 homes went “pending” during the month.
  • With just two-thirds of the month behind us, there are presently 42 homes “pending” since March 1, 2010.
  • If the present pace continues, we’ll finish the month at about 300% of the activity level of March 2009.  That’s pretty impressive!
  • 75% of all of the pending homes were offered at list prices of $1M or less.  Clearly, that is the price segment with the highest velocity in our market.
  • 15% of the homes were listed at $1M – $1.5M
  • The remaining 10% were all priced in the $1.5M – $2M segment except for one home that was priced slightly over $2M and took almost 2 mos of on-market time to finally go “pending”.

We are very early in the 2010 market, and sales activity at the lower to mid-range price levels looks very encouraging.  Although activity at the upper end of the Lamorinda real estate market has been at a greatly reduced level from the years of our “bull market”, it’s really too early in the year to jump to conclusions about that segment.  We have seen greatly increased interest over the last 10 days in our “upper end” listings, judging by the number of showings, internet activity, and buyers’ agents requesting disclosure documents in anticipation of writing an offer.  These are all positive signs of “life” in the upper ranges of the Lamorinda real estate market, and we are encouraged.





Lamorinda Real Estate Market Statistics

9 03 2010

On a year-over-year basis, it is clear that we are seeing considerable improvement on a broad basis across the Lamorinda real estate market.

The “devil is in the detail”, and that saying certainly applies to our current real estate market.  Let’s look at the subsegments, beginning with the most active segment of under $1 million:

  • Inventory is down approximately 20% from Feb 2009.
  • Closed escrows are more than double Feb 2009.
  • And, the leading edge of the market, pending sales are well over double last year’s performance.

If we look at the “upper end” of the Lamorinda market — $1.5+ million, we see a much different story:

  • The actual market performance stats for Dec 2008 – Feb 2009 were better than for Dec 2009 – Feb 2010.
  • Based upon closed sales in Feb, we have approximately 15 months of inventory in the Lamorinda real estate market over $1.5M.
  • Although no home is “average”; the average price per square foot for homes in this segment has bounced around because of the scarcity of sales, however it is averaging around $475 per square foot.

Inventory levels by price segment:

  • $1M – $1.5M:  10 months of inventory based upon closed sales.
  • $1.5M – $2M:  10 months of inventory based upon closed sales.
  • $2M – $3M:  12 months of inventory based upon closed sales.
  • $3M+ :  14+ months of inventory based upon NO closed sales in Dec 2009 – Feb 2010.  There are two homes presently pending in escrow.

Conclusions:

  • Our market has improved over 2009.
  • Homes priced correctly to the market under $1M are moving with considerable velocity.
  • As we move up market, pricing sensitivity becomes more acute as buyers have far more options.
  • The upper end market remains very soft and inventory levels appear to be growing significantly.