Our local Lamorinda market typically begins its cycle of increasing inventory in mid-February, and continues the growth in available homes for sale through June. The best market for a buyer or seller really depends upon the relationship between available supply and demand. We have seen years where the most favorable relationship for sellers is early in the cycle as buyers come out of their holiday season hibernation needing a home, and find very limited supply. This often occurs with people involved with year-end corporate relocations. Regardless, the real strength of the market normally runs through July, and then demand subsides significantly due to the fact that it’s often too late in the year for buyers to close an escrow and have their children start in our local schools prior to the first day of class.
For buyers and sellers in 2012, it may be best to engage the market earlier, rather than later due to the historically low interest rates. If demand for loans increases significantly, lenders will increase rates slightly to moderate demand. This will impact home affordability.
Today’s buyers are sophisticated and market-savvy by the time they write an offer on a home. It is therefore imperative that sellers realistically price their home to the market and not simply try and “test” it, hoping for the “one right buyer”. The latter “strategy” never works, and only serves to devalue the prime selling opportunity when a home first hits the market. The old adage that “you only have one opportunity to make a good first impression” applies to the marketing and pricing of a home.
Be wary of placing too much credence on the national or even the local media that regurgitates “national market” real estate statistics. We don’t live in a “national market”, and the statistics that get broadly published are many months out of date. Even the coveted S&P Case-Shiller housing index is always looking one quarter in arrears, and even at its narrowest focus, it lumps us into a measure of performance for the entire bay area market. In fact, a Wall St. Journal article from this week stated, “But right now, the connection between what the S&P/Case-Shiller index says and what is actually going on with housing may be lukewarm at best.”
We believe the tide has turned and that 2012 will present a unique opportunity to reengage the real estate market, either as a buyer or a seller. Don’t hesitate to contact us with your questions or for assistance in navigating you through the market.
