Lamorinda Real Estate 2012 — Where the market is now, and what lies ahead — Final Chapter in Series

3 02 2012

Our local Lamorinda market typically begins its cycle of increasing inventory in mid-February, and continues the growth in available homes for sale through June.  The best market for a buyer or seller really depends upon the relationship between available supply and demand.  We have seen years where the most favorable relationship for sellers is early in the cycle as buyers come out of their holiday season hibernation needing a home, and find very limited supply.  This often occurs with people involved with year-end corporate relocations.  Regardless, the real strength of the market normally runs through July, and then demand subsides significantly due to the fact that it’s often too late in the year for buyers to close an escrow and have their children start in our local schools prior to the first day of class.

For buyers and sellers in 2012, it may be best to engage the market earlier, rather than later due to the historically low interest rates.  If demand for loans increases significantly, lenders will increase rates slightly to moderate demand.  This will impact home affordability.

Today’s buyers are sophisticated and market-savvy by the time they write an offer on a home.  It is therefore imperative that sellers realistically price their home to the market and not simply try and “test” it, hoping for the “one right buyer”.  The latter “strategy” never works, and only serves to devalue the prime selling opportunity when a home first hits the market.  The old adage that “you only have one opportunity to make a good first impression” applies to the marketing and pricing of a home.

Be wary of placing too much credence on the national or even the local media that regurgitates “national market” real estate statistics.  We don’t live in a “national market”, and the statistics that get broadly published are many months out of date.  Even the coveted S&P Case-Shiller housing index is always looking one quarter in arrears, and even at its narrowest focus, it lumps us into a measure of performance for the entire bay area market.  In fact, a  Wall St. Journal  article from this week stated, “But right now, the connection between what the S&P/Case-Shiller index says and what is actually going on with housing may be lukewarm at best.”

We believe the tide has turned and that 2012 will present a unique opportunity to reengage the real estate market, either as a buyer or a seller.  Don’t hesitate to contact us with your questions or for assistance in navigating you through the market.





Lamorinda Real Estate 2012 — Where the market is now, and what lies ahead — Chapter 2

29 01 2012

As we continue with “Chapter 2″ of a three-part series on our forecast for the Lafayette real estate market, Orinda, and Moraga — commonly referred to as “Lamorinda”– we find that in 2011 the strength of the market continued to be the sub-$1M homes.  This is underscored by the fact that the average list price of a Lamorinda home on-market in the 4thquarter was approximately $1.4M, while the average price of a SOLD home was just below $1M.

Looking in a more focused manner at the Lafayette real estate market, the $2M+ segment is still extremely slow, while the $1M – $2M market has been very active and suffers from a lack of quality inventory.  As of the end of December 2011, there were only 10 homes on the market in this segment, with 8 closed sales during the month and 1 pending sale.  Below $1M, 6 homes went into escrow during the month of December against an inventory of 22 homes — so a little better than 1 in 4 homes found a buyer.

A number of other external factors appear to give rise to further optimism for the 2012 market.  Since most people require a mortgage in order to purchase a home, the underlying interest rate of the note plays an important role in determining home affordability.  Interest rates for 30 year fixed rate mortgages have fallen to an all-time low, averaging about 3.89% for conforming loans – those under $729,000.  For those able to afford a higher payment in exchange for only a 15 year term, they are being rewarded with conforming loan rates averaging just 3.15%.  Jumbo loans – those over $729,000 – are readily available for qualified buyers from most major lenders at rates in the low 4% range!

Nationally, foreclosure filings have dropped to the lowest level since 2007 – another signal that the tide may be turning.  Some believe the decline may be due to delays by the banks in processing foreclosures and that we’ll see an increase in them as we head deeper into 2012.  Even if that is the case, the increase may be more than mitigated by new programs packaging large blocks of foreclosed homes for investors.  Numerous large commercial enterprises are now entering the single-family home market, seeking to bulk purchase large numbers of properties that will be turned into rentals.  One of the recent market entries is the private equity fund, GI Partners, out of Menlo Park.  They envision expanding their investment in single-family homes to about $1B in the next two years.  A very recent 26-page paper by the Federal Reserve outlined programs for converting the glut in foreclosed homes to rental stock.  Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to announce pilot programs in the weeks ahead.  What’s it mean?  It strongly suggests more decreases in inventory which will result in additional shoring up of the market, and will be supportive of strengthening home prices.

When you check back next time, we’ll finish up with where we think the Lamorinda real estate market is headed for 2012.

 





Lamorinda Real Estate 2012 — Where the market is now, and what lies ahead — Part 1

21 01 2012

As we commence 2012, we are about 6 years into the current real estate cycle that saw prices hit their peak in Contra Costa County around June 2006, and then begin their well-documented decline phase.  Much has transpired on the economic front lines over the last year that has impacted consumer confidence, ranging from the European financial crisis on the negative side of the balance sheet, to the positive impact of a fourth quarter resurgence in our domestic stock markets.  Although one never knows for sure that the real estate market has bottomed until historical data shows that it has already turned up, we believe that it is doubtful that we will see any further erosion in Lamorinda real estate prices.   The bottom may have already been reached, and we think that 2012 will bring price stabilization and perhaps some slightly improved property valuations over recent years.  The downward leg of the cycle may be broken.

Although our micro-market of Lamorinda often behaves much differently than the overall Contra Costa market, and profoundly different than the “national market”, it is worth evaluating the encouraging trends we are seeing on a county-wide basis.  Keep in mind that an enormous proportion of the county sales data is comprised of Antioch and Pittsburg which have been at the forefront of the national foreclosure market.  As a result, strong positive movement in the county inventory and sales statistics serve to make an even more significant statement about the improving conditions of our market.

The December 2011 market data showed a profound 44% drop in inventory from the same period in 2010, while pending sales grew by 17%.  This resulted in reducing the 3.2 months of inventory in December 2010 to only 1.8 months in December 2011.  It’s a very significant improvement in the market, and we believe it signals price stabilization and perhaps even selective shoring up of prices in some areas.

Within our Lamorinda real estate market, the inventory decline tracks with the county, experiencing a reduction of 46% over December of 2010.  The statistic that we didn’t really expect to find is that inventory levels for December 2011 dropped to the lowest level we have seen for 5+ years!  To underscore the apparent health of the market, closed sales for December 2011 were up 36% over the previous December.  Pending sales, the leading edge of the market, were up slightly over last year.  This was likely due to the depletion of inventory and the shortage of homes in many price segments.   Prices decreased 4.7% in Lamorinda when evaluating the 2nd half of 2011 over the same period in 2010.

When this series continues… you’ll find out about the strength and weakness of particular segments of the Lamorinda real estate market, and what we believe lies ahead!





How’s Lamorinda Real Estate Doing vs. the “National Market”?

10 11 2011

A flurry of media attention is once again turning to the performance of the “national real estate market” as third quarter performance shows less than encouraging results.  According to a Wall Street Journal article, US home prices dropped 4.7% for the third quarter 2011 over 2010.  A nationwide interactive map shows locally that the San Jose metro area dropped 5.3%, the SF-Oakland-Fremont metro area dropped 10%, and the Sacramento area continued its decline with another 10% loss over the same period.  Looking just at the Lamorinda market, we also saw a 10% dip in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis — clearly sharing in the pain of the uncertain European economies and a turbulent stock market.  Inventories in Lamorinda dropped almost 26% versus the same period last year, while the number of closed sales dropped 11.5%.

Looking at just the month of October 2011, we saw a healthy 30% drop in inventory over October 2010, while seeing only an 8% drop in new pending sales, representing the leading edge of the market.  The sub-million dollar segment has been the strongest of all price segments in the last couple of years, and we saw a 14% rise in inventory in October vs. September of this year.  Perhaps more sellers were trying to jump in and capitalize on the segment’s strength with the month’s unseasonably warm weather. Pending sales as a percentage of total inventory in the segment was very similar to 2010, yet the median price for the segment sunk by a surprising 13% over October 2010.

The $1M – $1.5M segment showed a remarkable resurgence last month in the world of Lamorinda real estate.  Inventories dropped 28% over October of 2010, while pending sales jumped up 62% to a total of 13 sales for the month against an inventory of 41 homes.  Pending sales in the $1.5M – $2M segment showed some improvement over Oct 2010, as well, with a total of 3 units in this category against an inventory of 16 homes. The Lamorinda real estate market above $2M continues to be almost non-existent. There was just 1 new pending sale in October against an inventory of 20 homes — equating to 20 months of inventory in this segment!

Clearly, the last quarter was a very challenging one economically across ALL markets, not just real estate.  Ultimately, consumer confidence and jobs drive the real estate market, and we have a ways to go in both areas.  On a positive note, we’ve received several calls from agents representing buyers who are not finding good matches for their clients in the $1.5M+ segments, and have been seeking an opportunity to have us arrange showings of homes that are not on the market.  As the market continues to adjust, over-pricing is an issue in all segments, but particularly in the upper tiers of the market.





Fall in Lamorinda Real Estate… Travels Abroad

25 09 2011

For those wondering if I fell off the globe for a few weeks, the answer is, “sort of”.  There never is an ideal time to take time off in this business, so early this year we planned an adventure to Italy and Croatia for early September.  The trip was epic, but the internet connectivity was marginal, at best.  So, with the best of intentions of keeping up on the blog, reality dictated otherwise.  In many respects, we take so much for granted here — the internet and ready-access to technology fall into that category.

Not a lot has changed in the market, but perhaps a fresh impression of matters upon returning from the trip has some advantages.  My sense is that in many cases, people are still struggling to find that delicate equilibrium that brings a willing buyer and seller together to consummate a sale.  Sellers of upper end homes are having a very difficult time processing whether their home is not selling because of price, or simply due to the the thin nature of the market.  Since there is almost always a willing buyer at the right price, the reality of the market is painful for many.  As always, when moving down-market closer to the $1M price point, simple supply and demand results in much more vigorous activity.  The world economic factors have clearly exacerbated matters, and the volatility of markets in the last week has certainly brought the issues front and center.

The Wall Street Journal quoted a senior economist, Sam Bullard, from Wells Fargo Securities, “With economic growth sputtering, the modest recovery we have seen so far in home sales is likely to become even more sluggish.”  The article goes on to mention that a survey of over 100 economists released by MacroMarkets, LLC,  predicts that national home prices will show a drop of about 2.5% this year, and then rise at just 1.1% annually through 2015.  Their chief economist is Robert Shiller of the noted S&P Case-Shiller Index. Even though we know that there is really no such thing as a “national market”, and that individual markets perform with some independence, “when the tide goes out, all ‘boats’ ride lower in the water.”

Let’s take a quick look at the latest Lamorinda real estate market statistics with data through August.  The number of pending sales dropped in August from July by 30 percent, and also declined by 14 percent from August of 2010 — likely reflecting the global market uncertainties that have clouded the economic news in recent weeks.  The upper end of the market continues to bear the majority of the pain with pending sales in the $1.5M+ segment dropping by 45 percent from the previous month, and an even 50 percent from August of 2010.

The good news is that economists seem to show some consensus that we’ve hit the bottom of the market, and it might diminish the uncertainty harbored by consumers. Furthermore, with equity markets displaying incredible volatility, perhaps people will look to real estate as one of the safer havens for their dollars.  We’ll see.





Crazy Times with a Jittery Stock Market!

7 08 2011

To those of you who regularly read this blog and have come to expect frequent new market insights offered up, I heartily apologize! I’ve been VERY preoccupied over recent weeks by how busy we’ve been in the world of Lamorinda real estate, and have not had the time to be thoughtful or creative in writing new blog posts. Ah… such a burden! If only I could suppress my semi-Type A personality and it’s ongoing battle for perfection! With my days averaging 12-14 hours long, 7 days a week for the last several weeks, I clearly need to find a way to immediately plunge into REM sleep and get by with about 4 hours a night! I know people who can do that, and I envy that capability. Fortunately, a more normal business life is just around the corner as the final month or so of the summer selling season winds down.

So, let’s not belabor the craziness in Washington, the uncertainty in Europe, or the slight downgrade to our debt rating by Standard & Poors. Aside from limiting ALL politicians to two terms; reshaping their pension plan to be appropriate to my newly imposed term limits; giving them the same sorts of health care choices as the rest of the American people; eliminating special interest campaign contributions; barring them from taking private sector jobs with the same companies that donate to their campaigns, etc… I don’t have much to say about these people or the mess that they’ve created. Enough said!

Let’s look at local real estate where things seem to be a lot more logical. Like I said earlier, the last few weeks have been extraordinarily busy within our little corner of the Lamorinda real estate market. In fact, there were few signs that people really cared what was going on in Washington or with the stock market.  We had a Lafayette home that had been on the market for about a month, suddenly end up with multiple offers; and we had another Lafayette home last week end up with 4 offers within 72 hours of going on-market! Another Lafayette property that has been on the market for a much longer period of time is expected to get an offer today, following a price reduction. And, we’ve had other buyer clients make offers on properties within the last couple of weeks. So, in spite of the external economic turmoil, it appears that confidence remains reasonably high in Lafayette real estate.

The July market data will be released in the next few days, and I’ll promptly share it with you. I’m expecting to see a reasonably strong market under $1.5M, and continued stagnation above that price point. Inventories remain in check, and are considered normal and balanced by historical standards. Stay tuned for the details!





Negotiating in the Lamorinda Real Estate Market

5 07 2011

Early in my business career, one of my mentors taught me the importance of understanding what the other party values in a negotiation and trying to appeal to those areas.  It’s important to put yourself in their place so that you can at least strive for the ideal “win-win” scenario.  You should also understand your limits in the negotiation… what you are willing to give up… how far you’ll go on key points, and also where you might give concessions with points that you don’t value highly.  As one of my former tech colleagues from Texas used to say, “Let’s give ‘em the sleeves out of our vest.”

I had the opportunity to observe a couple of unsuccessful negotiating strategies in the last week or so… one by a seller and the other by a buyer.  Both were in multiple offer situations, rare in the present market.  In the first scenario, the property was listed by another broker, and there was considerable interest in it the first day on-market. About 4-5 buyers and their agents requested disclosure documents and expressed interest in writing an offer.  All were told not to write their offers until a meeting had taken place the following day with the seller to discuss their offer review strategy.  The next day, we were all told that offers would not be accepted and reviewed for 5 days, so that the property could be fully exposed to the market.

When the “offer day” arrived, all but one of the parties had decided NOT to write an offer.  My client was one of the buyers who had decided not to proceed, but told me that they would have written an offer if the sellers would have reviewed it the second day the home was on the market.  In this case, the sellers of the property failed to value the buyers and their potential offers.  My client told me that the process “just doesn’t feel right” in this market.  They also decided that maybe they “weren’t in love” with the property.  Evidently, they weren’t alone in their feelings.

In the other situation, we found ourselves on the listing side of the transaction.  An offer came in on our listing within about 24 hours of the home going on-market.  The price was almost acceptable to the seller, but there was a term in the contract that would have legally been immaterial to the buyer unless they defaulted, but would potentially be very important to the seller in a buyer default scenario. Absent a buyer default, this particular contract term would have been financially neutral to the buyer.  The sellers countered the buyer on price and the contract term noted above.  It should also be noted that the sellers were countering the term in accordance with what is considered normal custom and practice in most of California real estate.  The buyers accepted the counter on price, but then countered out the change in the term mentioned above.  So, in this negotiation, the buyer had an opportunity to secure the property at an acceptable price, but countered out a term that would have had no financial or other impact upon them as long as they performed in accordance with the contract.

You can probably guess what happened.  While counter offers were being issued/reviewed, another buyer stepped forward with a better price and better contract terms.  When buyer #1 finally decided to concede on the term in question, it was too late.  The sellers had decided that they wanted to accept the second buyer’s offer. Buyer #1 failed to follow the Texas rule of conceding “the sleeves out of the vest!”





Does Anyone Really Know What’s Going On in the Lamorinda Real Estate Market?

28 06 2011

I apologize for the brief break in the continuity of my normally frequent blog posts.  The truth is that I’ve been swamped with real estate work, and getting that done is the first priority.  Quiet moments for reflection and writing have been few and far between the last couple of weeks.  With that said, does anyone really know what the heck is going on with Lamorinda real estate these days?

According to an article in today’s Wall St. Journal, “national” home prices were up a bit in April, even managing to get David Blitzer, Chairman of the S&P’s home index committee to refer to it in positive terms as a “welcome change”.  Naturally, it’s too early to tell if April was an anomaly, just a run of good weather, or if it’s the beginning of a national turn-around in the market.  I’ve given up on predicting these things as there are too many moving parts.  Besides, as I’ve said, there is no national real estate market, anyway.

There IS a Lamorinda real estate market, and I’m trying to figure it out.  Looking at the stats, one would come to the conclusion that anything priced over $1.5M will have an extended period of market time; $1M – $1.5M is looking fairly solid; and decent homes priced under $1M are a HOT item.  Looking at the overall Lamorinda real estate market and comparing it to the “national” market stats from Case-Shiller, we see some differences.  Whereas the “national” market was up in April over 2010, Lamorinda was down slightly with the average per square foot price dropping from $396 in April of 2010 to $379 in April 2011.  Since we’re a bit faster to record and publish our data than Case Shiller, the May prices took another drop — going from $442 per sq. ft. in 2010 to $389 per sq. ft. in May of 2011 — a 12% drop on a year-over-year basis.  One would think the market might be in trouble based upon the stats, but that’s not been my experience the last few weeks.

Last week, a property went on the market in Lafayette with a so-so ranch style home that needs significant remodeling and expansion, on a superb lot of almost a half-acre — perfectly level and centrally located.  I’ve heard that there are at least 7 agents writing offers on it today.  Another home went on the market Friday… close to the “magical” Lafayette bike trail, substantially remodeled, but within proximity to a fair amount of road noise.  There was so much interest in the home that the sellers decided to wait 5 days to review offers. Finally, we put a home on the market late Friday at almost $1.5M.  Late Saturday, we got an offer that our clients countered.  Without a response yet from the first party, on Monday a second offer came in, followed by a third offer!  I guess the Larmorinda market isn’t on life support when the right home at the right price comes up.

The truth is, I’m still scratching my head a bit about what I’ve seen in the last few weeks.  I guess I’m seeing people step forward and be less tentative than in recent months.  Perhaps there is a fairly large unsatisfied demand for housing in this area that is jumping into the market… perhaps, it’s just a blip.  It’s impossible to tell at this point, but it certainly presents a much more positive view of the market than what we’ve witnessed in the months leading up to now.  Stay tuned… it could be an interesting summer!





Why the time may be right in Lamorinda Real Estate…

7 06 2011

The national media jumped all over last week’s Case-Shiller data announcement that real estate markets had dropped to 2002 pricing levels and that we were entering a “double-dip” period of the housing market decline.  Bad news sells, and the media hounds were all over this one.

It’s important to look at matters like this with a sense of proper perspective.  When the tide goes out, all boats ride lower in the water, but that does not mean that they all sink equally low, nor that that some won’t rise to higher levels when the tide comes back in. The current downturn is being driven by a glut of foreclosures in the broader market, and an employment market that is still weak due to the vastly improved efficiency of America’s private sector employers.  The foreclosures are artificially lowering “the tide” in Lamorinda real estate, even though we have relatively few of them within our immediate market.

According to CoreLogic, national residential prices dropped 7.5% in April over April 2010 levels, yet stripped of the foreclosure sales, prices were only off one half of one percent (0.5%).  In Lamorinda, the April 2011 median price was down just 2.5% from April 2010 — a much healthier performance level than the “national” markets.  Ah… remember, there is NO such thing as a “national” real estate market, yet that is what the media keeps referring to in the myriad of bad news real estate articles.

It’s refreshing to see some balanced perspective in the press, for example in this past weekend’s Wall St. Journal article “Why It’s Time to Buy“.  According to the article, there are numerous reasons to buy now:

  • Mortgage rates at near 50 year lows, dropping to an average of 4.55% last week.
  • Moody’s Analytics reporting that the ratio of home prices to income is now 20.9% lower than the 15-year average through 2010, and 12.5% lower than the 1989-2004 average.
  • Nationally, Moody’s is predicting that the glut of foreclosure homes will subside by 2013, and that prices will begin edging upward then… sooner in areas such as the land of Lamorinda real estate where we have not been severely impacted by distressed properties.
  • Demographic indicators such as “household formation”—the number of new households each year—are on the rise, and will take a sizable “bite” out of housing inventory… helping the “tide” to rise.
So, what does the future hold? Once the foreclosure mess begins to clear up, say housing economists, the traditional drivers of the housing market—demographics, affordability, loan availability, employment and psychology—should take over. According to CoreLogic’s chief economist, Mark Fleming, “The regular housing market is hanging tough.”  With a highly diversified economy surrounding Lamorinda, record low mortgage rates, and foreclosure levels FAR below those found in most parts of the country, it’s hard to imagine a better time to buy for the long term.  Just remember, you’ll never know when the market has bottomed out until its on the way up.




Time to Jump into the Lamorinda Real Estate Market!?

27 05 2011

It’s easy to be negative about the economy and the real estate market.  After all, we’ve traversed economic territory over the last several years, previously unseen by anyone since 1929 and the Great Depression.  Our recovery has been sector-specific, and many people are still unemployed or under-employed.  If you were to spend time down in the Silicon Valley’s tech economy, you would never know that we are at the tail end of a recession.  Jobs are abundant and vast troves of venture capital dollars are searching for early stage investment opportunities.

I just returned from a short trip to NYC to attend our son’s graduation from NYU’s Finance MBA program. Judging from the employment opportunities available to the graduates and the over-flowing restaurants, shops and bars of Manhattan, the finance sector of our economy is booming, too.  John Paulsen spoke at the graduation.  Both he and his $4B+ are doing fine.

So… the economy is a mixed bag.  There are reasons to be concerned, yet equally compelling reasons to be positive about its outlook.  We are a nation of innovators with a history of large swings in our economy as we go from boom to bust.  I’m choosing to be positive about the long term prospects and the upcoming generation of entrepreneurs who are creating new growth opportunities in areas that we never contemplated before.

As an example, here’s a shameless plug for a company co-founded by my son while he attended NYU’s full-time Finance MBA program: SKILLSLATE.  Frankly, I don’t know how he did it since founding a startup company is a 70-100 hr/week undertaking.  It’s innovative, extremely well-received in NYC, and the company is moving to SF — hopefully launching in the Bay Area in the months ahead. Companies and innovation of this type are why I’m personally bullish on our long-term economic growth prospects.  Wealth can be created where there was none before.

So… back to real estate.  Our market has reflected the weather…quirky, sleepy at times, and sometimes wild.  As of this morning, there are 214 Active properties on the market in Lamorinda, and 112 Pending in escrow.  That’s a pretty healthy relationship of pending sales to available inventory.  Clearly, buyers are carefully evaluating the market and making buying decisions when they see strong value propositions.  Here are some additional reasons why I think it’s a good time to jump into the market:

  • Interest rates are headed up.  It’s inevitable, and it may be accelerated by the changing conforming loan limits at the end of September.  With the reduced Federal support of the mortgage market, rates will likely click up.
  • We might see the end of the 30-year loan?  It’s speculation at this point, but certainly possible as private lenders seek to reduce their mortgage portfolio risk.  I don’t see this as likely in 2011, but we certainly see a trend in this direction late this year and in 2012.
  • Mortgage qualifying requirements will become more stringent.  This is an inevitable piece to lenders reducing their portfolio risk.  I expect to see higher credit score thresholds for the best loan rates and perhaps slightly higher minimum down payment requirements.  This is a work in progress.  Stay tuned.
  • The alternative to buying is renting.  Rents are going through the roof!  It’s all supply and demand driven, but rents are getting to be outrageous in locations within the US where people really want to live… San Francisco, Lafayette, Orinda, and yes, Manhattan!  I probably get 4-5 calls a month from people hoping that I might know of a home to rent.  Its because they can’t find one through normal channels, like Craigslist or the MLS.  The overall cost of buying vs. renting may have tipped to the former, especially if you believe we’ve reached the market bottom.
Food for thought.  What do you think?







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