A flurry of media attention is once again turning to the performance of the “national real estate market” as third quarter performance shows less than encouraging results. According to a Wall Street Journal article, US home prices dropped 4.7% for the third quarter 2011 over 2010. A nationwide interactive map shows locally that the San Jose metro area dropped 5.3%, the SF-Oakland-Fremont metro area dropped 10%, and the Sacramento area continued its decline with another 10% loss over the same period. Looking just at the Lamorinda market, we also saw a 10% dip in the third quarter on a year-over-year basis — clearly sharing in the pain of the uncertain European economies and a turbulent stock market. Inventories in Lamorinda dropped almost 26% versus the same period last year, while the number of closed sales dropped 11.5%.
Looking at just the month of October 2011, we saw a healthy 30% drop in inventory over October 2010, while seeing only an 8% drop in new pending sales, representing the leading edge of the market. The sub-million dollar segment has been the strongest of all price segments in the last couple of years, and we saw a 14% rise in inventory in October vs. September of this year. Perhaps more sellers were trying to jump in and capitalize on the segment’s strength with the month’s unseasonably warm weather. Pending sales as a percentage of total inventory in the segment was very similar to 2010, yet the median price for the segment sunk by a surprising 13% over October 2010.
The $1M – $1.5M segment showed a remarkable resurgence last month in the world of Lamorinda real estate. Inventories dropped 28% over October of 2010, while pending sales jumped up 62% to a total of 13 sales for the month against an inventory of 41 homes. Pending sales in the $1.5M – $2M segment showed some improvement over Oct 2010, as well, with a total of 3 units in this category against an inventory of 16 homes. The Lamorinda real estate market above $2M continues to be almost non-existent. There was just 1 new pending sale in October against an inventory of 20 homes — equating to 20 months of inventory in this segment!
Clearly, the last quarter was a very challenging one economically across ALL markets, not just real estate. Ultimately, consumer confidence and jobs drive the real estate market, and we have a ways to go in both areas. On a positive note, we’ve received several calls from agents representing buyers who are not finding good matches for their clients in the $1.5M+ segments, and have been seeking an opportunity to have us arrange showings of homes that are not on the market. As the market continues to adjust, over-pricing is an issue in all segments, but particularly in the upper tiers of the market.
